Fort Myers ranks as the third most overvalued real estate market in Florida, behind Lakeland in first and Tampa in second, according to a study by Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University.
The study looked at housing markets across the country and found that Florida and Ohio topped the most overvalued markets in the country.
FAU’s Ken H. Johnson, Ph.D., and FIU’s Eli Beracha, Ph.D., rank the most overvalued housing markets in America’s 100 largest metropolises each month.
According to their study, Lakeland and Tampa are currently more than 40% above historic home prices – the Fort Myers market is 39.2% higher.
“If you’re buying a home in these metros across Florida, Ohio and other areas, it’s imperative that you know you’re buying near the top of the market,” said Johnson, an economist for FAU Executive Education at from the College of Enterprise. “The danger is that prices will stabilize or even drop soon, and you’ll be stuck in that house for a while before you can sell it at a profit that makes financial sense.”
According to the study, Lakeland is currently the most overvalued housing market in the state. The study indicates that buyers are paying 42.54% more for homes than they should. Tampa follows in the second, with buyers paying 41.46% more. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton ranks fourth behind Fort Myers in Florida at 34.5%.
The most overvalued market in the country remains Boise, Idaho, where buyers are paying about 77% more than they should, based on past price trends. Austin, Texas is second, with buyers paying a premium of around 60%.
Utah has three metros in the Top 10: Ogden (3), Provo (5) and Salt Lake City (9).
A recent mortgage rate hike will soon affect the U.S. housing market, and metro areas with low housing inventories and expectations of future population growth are well positioned to weather the impending housing downturn, the researchers said.
For example, Miami, Florida’s least overvalued market at around 21%, has relatively low housing inventory levels and a steady influx of new residents, which likely contributed to the biggest slowdown in Florida metro prices.
Madison, Wis.; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; and Richmond, Va., are other areas where prices could stabilize rather than fall sharply, researchers said.
However, markets with limited future growth prospects may face more difficult downturns in the face of rising mortgage rates.
These areas include Detroit; Memphis, TN; and Dayton and Youngstown, Ohio.
“Mortgage rates have been near all-time lows for the past two years and have helped sustain strong housing demand during the pandemic,” said Beracha, of FIU’s Hollo School of Real Estate. “Now we’re seeing rates rise, and that’s going to pull some buyers out of the market and reduce price gains. Areas like Miami are better equipped than others to weather the blow.
New York and San Francisco, two traditionally expensive housing markets, are among the least overvalued in the country, according to the researchers’ ranking.
“Buyers in some cities have apparently learned from past mistakes,” Johnson said. “It’s like they refuse to be tricked into thinking housing prices are only skyrocketing for a second time.”
Researchers use publicly available data from the online real estate portal Zillow or other providers. The data, which spans from January 1996 to December 2021, covers single-family homes, townhouses, condominiums and co-ops.
For the complete list, see company. fau.edu/executive-education/ housing market ranking/Housing-top-100/index.php. ¦
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